Wednesday, May 7th, 2008

Time	Event
9:50a	The Plan Continues A few weeks back, I had posted about how I thought the game was going to run for the remaining races. Pennsylvania for Hillary, North Carolina for Obama, and Indiana would be tight, but if Hillary won, she's going to pick up a good chunk of pledged delegates in the remaining races through June 3rd. I know many Obama supporters are celebrating the win in North Carolina and keeping it close in Indiana and declaring it over. I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch. Kentucky and West Virginia are shaping up to be HUGE wins for Clinton - we will possibly see 70% in either or both of these two states. The size of her wins in the appalachia portion of North Carolina and Virginia are making me more and more happy as I look at the breakdowns. Clinton is *still* on track to pick up 30-50 delegates in these last contests through June 3rd. And then, there is Michigan and Florida. Call it "Moving the Goal Posts" all you want, I call it "Throwing the Challenge Flag" onto the field and having the referee review. May 31st is the first test of whether we will see Florida and Michigan seated and how they will allocate. The latest indications from everyone, including Dean, is that they WILL be seated. And any allocation for either state that isn't 50/50 is a big win for Clinton, especially because she has the backing of the Super's in both states. Don't use the Kos countdown clock, since the referees will be adding time to the official game clock on May 31st. Lastly, the item that I've been hammering on for eons is all about electability. Uncommitted Democratic superdelegates in Congress overwhelmingly say they won’t necessarily back the presidential candidate who wins the most primary delegates. Instead, electability will be very important in their decision. http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/superdelegates-say-we-will-decide-2008-05-06.html Apparently the undecided Super Delegates agree. And look, Clinton still wins over McCain, and earns more electoral votes than Obama. I just gave Clinton money to congratulate her on her Indiana win, because she's moving on, not just in this primary, but in the General Election. (1 Comment | Comment on this)
8:50p	50% is the new threshold A full 50% in North Carolina of people that voted for Hillary Clinton and another 50% in Indiana that voted for Hillary Clinton say they will not back Barack Obama in the General Election. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/06/primaries.change/index.html Yes, you can call it a consequence of the heated primary battle and some will settle down and cross over. However, there's a lot of people out there like me who will not cross over. More damning, 33% said they would vote for McCain over Obama in Indiana, and 38% in North Carolina. Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said vote for her against McCain. If he does become the Democratic nominee... why do the words "Republican Circle Jerk" keep coming to my lips? (8 Comments | Comment on this)

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